Will doubling agricultural production solve the problem of global hunger?

With the development of agricultural technologies, the food supply has increased significantly since the 1960s. However, the question of how to eliminate global hunger and how to feed the growing world population in the coming years is still one of the biggest problems ahead. Human population growth, as well as climate change and increased competition for land and water, have exacerbated the problem. Urgent action is needed to seek answers to difficult questions such as how to feed the future world population and how to eradicate global hunger and ensure global food security, and to develop effective policies.

Global food problems

In order to formulate effective policies for solving global food problems, a better understanding of the diversity and causes of the problems is required. Studies have mainly used four broad indicators to measure problems in global food security:

(1) food demand,

(2) population at risk of hunger,

(3) food prices,

(4) childhood malnutrition.

Often, these studies are difficult to compare due to the variability in results and differences in the methods applied. Michiel van Dijk and colleagues from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) conducted a meta-analysis to assess the range of future global food security projections up to 2050. Findings from the study show that food demand will increase between 35% and 56% over the period 2010–2050, mainly due to population growth, economic development, urbanization and other factors. In the worst scenarios, the population at risk of hunger is expected to increase by 8% in the 2010–2050 period. When the effect of climate change is added to this, this rate rises up to 30%. We cannot solve this problem simply by doubling current agricultural production. Because it is clear that the destruction of the environment and the loss of biodiversity caused by this approach will exacerbate the problem. To avoid such impacts, policies and investments are needed that promote sustainable intensification and incorporate ecological principles into agricultural systems and practices, while reducing food loss and waste and encouraging a shift to more plant-based production.

Pandemics Issue

We have understood that due to the Covid-19 pandemic we have experienced this year, we need to include the impact of future pandemics in the problems related to global food safety. According to the World Food Program (WFP), it is predicted that more than a quarter-billion people will suffer from acute hunger by the end of the year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Concern for the virus has reached the highest level for countries in Africa and the Middle East, as it threatens their lives and livelihoods, as well as the trade networks they rely on for survival. Malnutrition and the resulting weakened immunity leave children particularly vulnerable, while overcrowded camps create fertile ground for a widespread epidemic. In addition, the effects of the pandemic on trade flows that are vital to millions of people can be devastating.

There is a particularly urgent need to address the pollution and land degradation caused by agricultural activities to sustain the global food supply. Many problems such as increasing water scarcity, pesticide resistance, diseases, yield losses and changing climate are the main problems of agricultural production systems. In order to ensure the global food supply, the approaches to be used in the solution of these problems must be ecologically sustainable. Setting clear goals will help researchers focus on these long-term challenges. On the other hand, given the uncertainty of long-term forecasts, these targets will need to be periodically improved as new information becomes available. The agricultural policies generally work towards the continuation of production. These policies make little reference to environmental requirements that target concerns such as erosion, loss of wetlands and grasslands, air quality, greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, many environmental regulations currently exempt agricultural activities.

So what should be done?

First of all, the applications that cause the most damage to the environment should be determined. Measurable goals should be set for these applications. Measurable goals can guide sustainable agriculture efforts and foster effective collaborations among researchers, farmers, government agencies and civil society groups. Denmark’s strategy to reduce pesticide use by 40% is a promising example of using quantitative targets to set environmentally sound agricultural programmes. Of course, it will not be enough to apply only sustainable-ecological agricultural activities to meet the global food demand. Additional policies need to be developed to ensure the world’s poorest people have safe access to nutritious food, reduce food waste in developed countries, and manage people’s food demand. We must also stop the expansion of cultivated land. Total land in agriculture has increased in Africa, South America and Asia since 2005. This indicates that land conversion continues at the expense of local ecosystems. Despite adequate global food production, nearly 795 million people are hungry today. Poverty, lack of infrastructure, mismanagement, natural disasters and political unrest limit food access. Although agricultural production increases and ecological problems are solved, it is not possible to eliminate the hunger problem without solving these problems.

It is obviously far better not to pollute the environment in the first place than have to develop ingenious ways of cleaning up the environment. For this reason, many agricultural industries are investigating the potential of plants and microorganisms to provide cleaner processes and products.

The benefits of this research include:

- An increase in the productivity of crops, without an increase in the dependency on environmentally-damaging agrochemicals.

- As a result of increased productivity, reduced pressure to exploit the remaining uncultivated habitats.

- As a result of increased productivity, a reduction in energy inputs (mostly from reduced agrochemical manufacture).

- The creation of alternative, renewable, sources of energy (e.g., biodiesel).

- The creation of new more environment-friendly raw materials for industry (e.g., biodegradable plastics from plant starches, or high-value speciality chemicals).

- As a result of the development of genetically-modified crops (if properly used), a reduction in the amount of agrochemical (e.g., pesticides and herbicides) is released into the environment.

References and Further Reading

1. A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050. Nat Food 2, 494–501 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9
2. Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification, BioScience, Volume 67, Issue 4, April 2017, Pages 386–391,https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix010
3. Risk of Hunger Pandemic as COVID-19 Set to Almost Double Acute Hunger by End of 2020 (World Food Programme, 2020); https://insight.wfp.org/covid-19-will-almost-double-people-in-acute-hunger-by-end-of-2020-59df0c4a8072